Congress, the states and the numbers behind them

U.S. midterm elections 2026

The entire House and a third of the Senate are elected on November 3, 2026. See today's composition from official sources, what is at stake in each state and which data is still missing. No forecasts.

Calculating status …How to vote (vote.gov)

What has changed?

Selected source publications and datasets in our coverage. A newly added source reference does not mean a new election event occurred. This is not a complete news feed or a live service.

Topic

Showing Kentucky and national source references. Choose a state under “Explore states and districts”.

2 entries in this selection

Voting · National source reference
USAGov: voting by mail ↗
Source update date: October 8, 2026
Read the official original source.
Source version and retrieval times
- USAGov ↗
  Retrieved: 2026-10-26T22:21:08.256888+00:00
  SHA-256 38cadbf1405c359f91418f69a8b151b4561cce4c9941e35685d8ff05088e9a2e
Campaign finance · National source reference
FEC: finance report for January 2025–June 2026 ↗
Source publication: October 1, 2026
Read the official original source.
Source version and retrieval times
- Federal Election Commission ↗
  Retrieved: 2026-10-26T22:21:08.906486+00:00
  SHA-256 bfb8a0234426536c8b05b00e3ee7895cf7b71d6bb9dff53d5c2b8c325aeda1e9

More journalistic coverage from NRK (Norwegian) ↗

Control of Congress

Today's composition is not a 2026 result.

House of Representatives

435 seats up · 218 = majority

D 214R 219

Current composition · Source published October 1, 2026 · Checked October 13, 2026
By caucus	D	R	vacant
By caucus	214	219	2

By party: R 218 · D 214 · I 1. One independent sits with the Republican caucus according to the Clerk.

Senate

Build your own seat scenario →

35 seats up (confirmed) · 51 = majority (the vice president breaks 50–50 ties)

D 45R 53

Current composition (By party) · Checked October 15, 2026
By party	D	R	I
By party	45	53	2

33 × regular Class II · term to 2033-01
1 × special OH · term to 2029-01
1 × special FL · term to 2029-01
Which caucus the independents join is not recorded from a source here. Party division is not the same as control.

Florida was confirmed on October 15 from an official notice. Seats up for election are separate from the party composition above. Senate candidates and results are not imported. Human review of the new explanations is pending. Official notice (PDF) ↗

Results tracking: House of Representatives

No results source is connected. No results from the 435 House races are imported here. This does not say whether election authorities have published results.

Source connection: 0 of 435 House races. Senate results are not included in this tracker. User scenarios and the current member roster are not used as election results.

The button retrieves Valg.info’s import status. It does not fetch election-authority pages. Automatic refresh and a results feed are not enabled. Retrieval failures or invalid data are never replaced with zero tallies.

Human editorial review of the new status explanation is pending.

Explore states and districts

Districts and holders from the Clerk roster. Candidate coverage is shown per state.

Correction, October 15, 2026Maryland candidates could incorrectly appear under other states. They now appear only under Maryland. The reviewed candidate records are unchanged.

Districts are those in the current membership roster. Changed 2026 election boundaries are not mapped here; a current holder is not automatically a 2026 candidate in the same area.

State

2026 Senate races

35 listed races: 33 regular elections and special elections in Ohio and Florida. Candidate lists and results are not imported.

Kentucky: 1 listed Senate race

See sourced updates for your watchlist →

FEC calendar data as of May 18, 2026. Senate classes from GPO October 9, 2026. This is a dated source snapshot. Later changes and possible new special elections require election-authority checks. It is not an up-to-date ballot list or voting-deadline guide.

View all 35 listed races

Election type by state – not candidates or results
State	Type	Class
Alaska	Regular	II
Alabama	Regular	II
Arkansas	Regular	II
Colorado	Regular	II
Delaware	Regular	II
Florida	Special	III
Georgia	Regular	II
Iowa	Regular	II
Idaho	Regular	II
Illinois	Regular	II
Kansas	Regular	II
Kentucky	Regular	II
Louisiana	Regular	II
Massachusetts	Regular	II
Maine	Regular	II
Michigan	Regular	II
Minnesota	Regular	II
Mississippi	Regular	II
Montana	Regular	II
North Carolina	Regular	II
Nebraska	Regular	II
New Hampshire	Regular	II
New Jersey	Regular	II
New Mexico	Regular	II
Ohio	Special	III
Oklahoma	Regular	II
Oregon	Regular	II
Rhode Island	Regular	II
South Carolina	Regular	II
South Dakota	Regular	II
Tennessee	Regular	II
Texas	Regular	II
Virginia	Regular	II
West Virginia	Regular	II
Wyoming	Regular	II

Sources and scope

FEC marks states with Senate elections. The GPO membership list only cross-checks seat classes; it is not a candidate list or evidence that an incumbent is running. No names or party composition are imported from it.

Federal Election Commission ↗Retrieved 2026-10-15T17:30:04.440591+00:00SHA-256 9a5d4ec0ba2b69daf2f510ef79bca0ca381ab699255ac5adb971b9672d517251
U.S. Government Publishing Office ↗Retrieved 2026-10-15T17:29:22.391134+00:00SHA-256 949d0440d0785054b8a6f2bbbc6843dfe8d78bf4b900dc4b4b938ca397aafb1a

Human editorial review of the new explanations is pending.

Kentucky

House of Representatives – 2026 candidatesNot covered

2026 candidates are not imported for this state.

GovernorNot covered

Whether there is a governor race, and who is running, is not imported.

SenateNot confirmed

A Senate election on November 3, 2026 is listed in the FEC calendar: regular Class II election. Candidates and results are not imported. Human review of the new explanation is pending.

Districts (current holder) · Clerk 2026-10-01
District	Held by	By caucus	2026 candidates
KY-1	James Comer (R)	R	Not imported
KY-2	Brett Guthrie (R)	R	Not imported
KY-3	Morgan McGarvey (D)	D	Not imported
KY-4	Thomas Massie (R)	R	Not imported
KY-5	Harold Rogers (R)	R	Not imported
KY-6	Andy Barr (R)	R	Not imported

National congressional polls

Selected published surveys, not a complete or live feed. Age is measured from the end of fieldwork.

Age and analysis calculated as of 2026-10-15 (America/New_York). This is not a new source check.

Pew Research Center · October 8, 2026

District-candidate preference, nationally

Registered voters mostly saw their district candidates’ names. Figures include respondents leaning toward a candidate. Generic choices were used in some areas and cases.

Registered voters · not an election result
Response	Share
D – Democratic candidate	44 %
R – Republican candidate	36 %
Another candidate, including leaners	5 %
Not sure	15 %
No answer (source symbol)	*

Rounded percentages. “*” is preserved from the source and is not set to zero. This is a national summary, not a poll of each district, a forecast or a seat estimate.

Fieldwork: September 28, 2026 – October 4, 2026
Registered voters: n=3,917 (full survey n=5,062)
Registered-voter sampling error: ±1.8 percentage points, 95% confidence level
Fieldwork age: 11 days since fieldwork ended
Retrieved: October 15, 2026

Shown separately: Question wording, named candidates and response categories differ from the generic polls below. These figures are not pooled with them.

Sources and method

Topline, PDF page 8 ↗Retrieved 2026-10-15T17:15:30.803167+00:00SHA-256 1033a1e13318f637003d7e7ab4930406505d1db6cdf2b36b39958e53b4681565
Report: sampling error, PDF page 31 ↗Retrieved 2026-10-15T17:16:10.822760+00:00SHA-256 fddc3405cdc676d51d12c01f19bbc9b863577263d44231917e288b84666b6b6a
Analysis and candidate exceptions ↗Retrieved 2026-10-15T17:15:34.034458+00:00SHA-256 19adfc78689458f8ff07da4c80206fccd8603d167ad78e35c28a0078bf3592a4

The sampling error applies to shares among registered voters, not the D–R difference. Turnout and other survey errors are not covered by this one margin.

“With Americans in a Sour Mood, Democratic Voters Are More Engaged in Midterms.” Pew Research Center, Washington, D.C. (October 8, 2026). Pew Research Center

State polls — separate Senate contests

National polls (generic ballot)

The question asks which party people would vote for in Congress nationally. It is not a district race and does not say who wins a majority.

Sources: Marist, Emerson · Not a licensed or live poll feed
Pollster	Fieldwork	Population	Sample	D	R	Uncertainty	Age / retrieved
Marist	2026-09-14 – 2026-09-15	Registered voters	1,280	53 %	41 %	±3.8 (margin of error)	30 days 2026-10-13
Emerson College	2026-09-21 – 2026-09-22	Likely voters	1,000	53 %	42 %	±3 (credibility interval)	23 days 2026-10-13

Descriptive average

Only polls with the same population, response set and contest are combined. With one pollster per population the "average" is just that poll.

Registered votersD 53.0 % · R 41.0 % · 1 pollster45-day window · latest wave per pollsterdescriptive-average-1 · not calibrated, not a forecast
Likely votersD 53.0 % · R 42.0 % · 1 pollster45-day window · latest wave per pollsterdescriptive-average-1 · not calibrated, not a forecast

Publication dates: Marist September 23 (page), Emerson September 24 (page publication metadata). Retrieved/checked October 13. Undecided shares are not imported; D/R shares are not normalized to 100 percent. This is a limited dated selection, not all polls. Automated recheck returned HTTP 403. Figures were checked with an AI-assisted source reader on October 13. This source version is covered by the page approval of October 13, 2026. Method: conducted September 21–22, 2026, n=1,000 likely voters, credibility interval ±3 (not a sampling margin of error).

What if the polls are wrong?

Compare selected 2020 and 2024 presidential polls with official vote counts. Historical errors do not calibrate the 2026 midterms.

Open historical polling errors

Scenario lab

Enter your own races and assumptions. The output is a conditional calculation, not a forecast or a probability. A majority is never shown without a complete set of 435 races.

Your own numbersEnter your own baseline margins. Official historical margins and compatible district boundaries are not imported yet. Your inputs are your own assumptions.

Race
Race	Baseline margin (D minus R, points)	Remove

Uniform shift (points)

Assumed error (standard deviation)

Correlation between races

Seed

Result of your assumptions

Add races and your own assumptions to calculate scenarios.

The House across 31 election cycles

Explore historical party allocations, 1964–2024 →

Two official historical tables, with visible source differences. Human review of the new explanations is pending.

Explainer and history

What is a midterm?

Midterms fall halfway through the president's four-year term. The president is not on the ballot; Congress is.

Who sets the rules?

States administer the election: registration, hours, early voting, ballots, counting and certification, so the rules differ by state.

Calls are not results

Media organizations "call" races from their own analysis. Official reported counts can be preliminary. Certified results follow state certification. Media calls stay separate from both.

Historical results

The FEC publishes a historical compilation of official federal results after states certify them. It is not a live feed. Historical party allocations from official House tables are available in a separate source view. Selected presidential polls and results are in the separate historical polling lab.

Dates

November 3, 2026Federal general election dayU.S. midterms

Confirmed hours use the election’s timezone. Date entries without hours do not confirm opening times.

Sources

Election dates and official results ↗Federal Election Commission · Checked October 13, 2026 · read with AI assistanceStates November 3, 2026 as the next regularly scheduled federal general election. States run voting hours, ballot access and certification. FEC's historical compilation is not an election-night feed.Public U.S. government information. Facts restated with a link.
The House explained ↗U.S. House of Representatives · Checked October 13, 2026 · read with AI assistance435 voting seats, two-year terms.Public U.S. government information. Facts restated with a link.
Member roster (MemberData.xml) ↗Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives · Checked October 13, 2026 · retrieved automaticallyPublished 2026-10-01. Imported with scripts/import_us_house_roster.py. Non-voting delegates are excluded; contact data is not stored.Public U.S. government information. Facts restated with a link.
Senators and party division ↗U.S. Senate · Checked October 15, 2026 · read with AI assistanceThe party division of 53 R, 45 D and 2 I was rechecked October 15 through AI-assisted reading. Automated retrieval returned HTTP 403 and is not bypassed. This is a source check, not a new human approval; the October 13 approval covers only the earlier identified version.Public U.S. government information. Facts restated with a link.
Class II senators (terms expire January 2027) ↗U.S. Senate · Checked October 13, 2026 · read with AI assistance33 regular seats. Direct automated retrieval returned HTTP 403. State coverage now uses a separate, dated FEC/GPO cross-check; it is not a candidate list. Human review of the new explanation is pending.Public U.S. government information. Facts restated with a link.
Ohio: writ of special election for U.S. Senate ↗Ohio Secretary of State · Checked October 13, 2026 · read with AI assistanceSpecial election on November 3, 2026 for the term ending January 2029.Public U.S. government information. Facts restated with a link.
Florida: official 2026 election notice (PDF) ↗Florida Department of State, Division of Elections · Checked October 15, 2026 · retrieved automaticallyThe Hendry notice, issued 2026-06-05, lists U.S. Senate at the 2026-11-03 election. Retrieved 2026-10-15T10:38:55.605236+00:00; SHA-256 6b09feadd0949d4f4673902a7191645e4ddb46dd2677bccb20167b9a62d521ed. Confirms office/date, not candidates or results. Human review of the new explanation is pending.Public U.S. government information. Facts restated with a link.
Class III: terms expire January 2029 ↗U.S. Senate · Checked October 15, 2026 · read with AI assistanceFlorida and Ohio are listed in Class III, with terms to January 2029. Read with the state notices, these are special elections, not new six-year terms. Automated retrieval returned HTTP 403; the public page was read with AI assistance. Human review of this addition is pending.Public U.S. government information. Facts restated with a link.
Maryland: 2026 U.S. House candidate list ↗Maryland State Board of Elections · Checked October 13, 2026 · retrieved automaticallyRetrieved 2026-10-13 with scripts/import_us_maryland.py (sha256 c2af2098a27e…). The raw file is not marked reviewed; names appear only while its sha256 matches the approval.Factual election metadata only. No photos, statements, addresses, emails or gender imported.
Maryland: 2026 governor candidate list ↗Maryland State Board of Elections · Checked October 13, 2026 · retrieved automaticallyRetrieved 2026-10-13 with scripts/import_us_maryland.py (sha256 a06ece681566…). The raw file is not marked reviewed; names appear only while its sha256 matches the approval.Factual election metadata only. No photos, statements, addresses, emails or gender imported.
New York: certification for the November 3, 2026 general election ↗New York State Board of Elections · Checked October 13, 2026 · automated retrieval blockedAmended certification of October 7, 2026 (read with AI assistance). Automated retrieval returned HTTP 403; nominees are not imported.Public U.S. government information. Facts restated with a link.
Marist, September 2026 ↗Marist Poll · Checked October 13, 2026 · read with AI assistanceAutomated recheck returned HTTP 403. Figures were checked with an AI-assisted source reader on October 13. This source version is covered by the page approval of October 13, 2026.Attributed under Marist's terms of use (maristpoll.marist.edu/terms-of-use). No full reprint.
Emerson, national poll September 2026 ↗Emerson College Polling · Checked October 13, 2026 · retrieved automaticallyMethod: conducted September 21–22, 2026, n=1,000 likely voters, credibility interval ±3 (not a sampling margin of error).Facts and method restated with a link. Reuse rights beyond that are not established.

Review: Reviewed by Lars Føleide, October 13, 2026. The NTNU autumn 2026 and U.S. 2026 midterm pages (Norwegian and English) with the source-linked review packet, as of version 7bd5783. Later changes, Norway 2027, international pages and the economy page are not covered. Checked against official sources with AI assistance, then approved without corrections.