Brazil 2026: election and market expectations

Official result · runoff

October 25, 2026 · Completed national totalization from TSE

Announced presidential term (source: Agência Senado): 4 · announced taking-office date January 5, 2027.

TSE: 25/10/2026 23:26:38 · America/Sao_Paulo. Completed counting does not mean a new presidential term has begun.

Poll and election result

Datafolha · October 23, 2026 – October 24, 2026 · valid-vote intentions

4,050 interviews; weighted valid-vote base: 3,848. Reported maximum whole-sample margin: ±2 percentage points at 95% confidence. No separate margin is calculated here for the candidate gap or comparison with the result.

The report is dated October 24; the checked webpage was published October 26. Its exact first public release time before the election is unverified. This is a retrospective comparison.

Prediction market before the election

Yes contracts · U.S. cents per possible one-dollar payout. Prices are not vote shares.

Last included observation: October 24, 2026 at 12:00 (UTC) · Lula 19.5¢ · Flavio Bolsonaro 80.15¢

Historical API observations, not an order-book archive or guaranteed execution prices. Later settlement values are excluded. Separate contracts are not normalized to 100 percent. One election does not establish market calibration.

Brazilian real · dated reference rates

Currency observations from the ECB. The USD rate is calculated from two same-date reference rates. These are currency data; EWZ history retains its separate source dependency.

19 observations · October 1, 2026 – October 27, 2026 · BRL per USD

The y-axis fits the observations and does not necessarily start at zero. A higher value means more real per dollar/euro. Reference dates are not executed-trade timestamps. Missing dates are not filled.

Currency movements around the election do not by themselves establish their cause. This does not measure ETF returns.

Download currency rates (CSV)

Source: ECB statistics. · Original ECB data ↗ · Reuse policy ↗

Latest observation date: October 27, 2026 · Retrieved: 2026-10-28T13:02:32.434290+00:00

ETF and market reaction

EWZ price history is not published here yet. A data source permitted for public use is missing. This does not mean the market was unchanged.

A future comparison must distinguish traded price from net asset value (NAV), regular trading from premarket indications and USD changes from Brazilian-real changes. A price move around an election does not by itself establish its cause.

Issuer’s EWZ information ↗

Sources and review

New political and financial summaries await their own named review. Earlier approvals for other elections do not cover this case.